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Can Twitter and Facebook afford to back Google and Microsoft into a corner

This morning the central topic of conversation in the office involved the outcome of a battle royal between a dog and a goose. We are in no way condoning this fight and the discussion was purely theoretical and yet hugely engaging. It came about as we presently have ten geese which have taken up residency slap bang outside our office door. They have taken to harassing cyclists and most of the female staff in the office. They have no fear and have been known to take on motor vehicles. From this the question was raised who would actually be victorious between a dog and a goose. To make things fair, as we are still a (questionable) democracy, we decided that the dog must be of medium size. A Border Collie seemed the obvious choice. Any larger or smaller and the outcome becomes to obvious.

Here was the general consensus of the office referees:

•    In a natural, open setting the goose would come out on points thanks to sheer front and aggression. The dog, having the option to avoid direct confrontation and escape without injury would, after posturing, leave with it’s tail between its legs. A bit like Paulie Malignaggi recently.

•    Take away the open environment though and force both into a direct confrontation and we felt that the dog may indeed have its day, thanks to its greater fighting resources.

So how on earth does this relate to social media? Well before you call the RSPCA, this is a great metaphor for Microsoft or Google and their social media competitors. Microsoft and Google are dogs surrounded by geese. Platforms such as Twitter, Facebook and to a lesser extent LinkedIn are the brash, in-your-face, segment of the digital world. The noise they generate is staggering. They have regular column inches in all of the top national papers and magazines and are usually the top story on all digital websites. Just like a goose they scare off competitors with a wall of noise. Geese honk, Twitter tweets and the dogs of Microsoft and Google avoid a full on, direct confrontation in the open industry environment.

A closer look at the revenues and overall value of these social media platforms however, show that these geese are lacking in the teeth department. An article published by Mashable valued Twitter at $1.4 billion, Facebook at $11.5 billion and LinkedIn at $1.3 billion. How much were Microsoft and Google valued at? $253.6 billion and $161 billion respectively on today’s markets. Add to this the fact that Twitter has struggled to build a sustainable revenue model and Facebook is suffering from privacy scares and the goose looks less bothersome.

Whilst there is some crossover between the companies (Microsoft in partnership with Facebook over banner ads etc.) Microsoft has to a certain extent continued to concentrate on its home markets; Hotmail has undergone a massive over haul and Windows 7 is getting great reviews. Google, continuing the dog metaphor, is perhaps eyeballing the geese with its recent addition of Buzz to Gmail.

It is the environment and its layout that is crucial to all this. The geese must not box the dogs in and force a confrontation: Social media sites can continue, in the short term, to dominate headlines in their own sector but they are in for a tough time if they diversify into other digital areas. Facebook are already venturing in to the ‘outside web’ with their universal like button and baiting Google with such a move. Let’s just hope they don’t push Microsoft into a cage or there will only be one outcome. Feathers will fly.

Tom McKenna

Juice Digital Manchester